GrubHub Inc (NYSE:GRUB) is scheduled to release its second quarter earnings results after closing bell tonight. Raymond James analysts are expecting solid results because of their recent surveys and also positive search trends during the quarter.
Expectations for GrubHub’s earnings
In a report dated July 23, 2014, analysts Aaron Kessler and Ben Cohen reiterated their Outperform rating and $41 per share price target ahead of GrubHub’s earnings report. They’re estimating quarterly revenue of $54.9 million, which would be a 35% year over year increase pro forma and compares to the 49% increase in the previous quarter. Their estimate is a bit ahead of consensus estimates at $54.7 million.
They’re expecting 3.87 million active diners, which would be a 39% increase year over year compared to a 49% increase in the previous quarter. They project an average order value of $26.30, which is a 1.5% increase. That’s another deceleration from the first quarter’s increase of 2.8%. They expect gross food sales will rise 32% to $406 million in the quarter and a sequentially flat rake rate of 13.5%. They’re looking with $14.4 million in EBITDA, which is in line with consensus estimates.
Search trends, surveys suggest positive results
The Raymond James team analyzed Google search trends data for the second quarter and found a 97% increase year over year for GrubHub.com during the June quarter. That’s an acceleration from the 94% increase in the previous quarter. They think their revenue growth estimate could end up being conservative because of this data point and still think there’s an upward bias to estimates.
The restaurant survey taken in June also suggests possible upside for GrubHub. The analysts say 89% of the restaurants that participated in the survey think the company drives incremental orders for them. The participating restaurants gave GrubHub and 8.2 rating out of 10, with the company’s biggest strengths being customer service, efficiency and convenience.
On the consumer side, the June survey indicated that 34% of consumers were aware of GrubHub, which is “significantly” higher than other platforms. Most of those were no higher than 8% of consumers.
What to look for in GrubHub’s earnings
The analysts say they think the active diner growth estimates are conservative, so investors will want to pay attention to this metric. They also say investors should look for signs of growth outside of the company’s core Chicago and New York markets. Two other key metrics are signs of competitive changes and the success of investments and brand campaigns in the second half of this year.
