TedBits – World War III Has Begun!

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barrels a day by 2018, with most of the additional supply forecast to come out of North America and Iraq.  Forecasted supply and demand growth per year:

TedBits - World War III Has Begun!

Do you really think any investment is going to enter Iraq?  Do you think the ISIS will attack the oil fields of their foes?  Do you think instability or stability will grow in the Middle East?  My bet is on INSTABILITY!  Do you think this will be good for economic growth?

SILVER coiled and ready to LAUNCH?

Silver has been undergoing in my opinion a cyclical bear market since 2011in a secular bull market which began with the gold bull market back in 2001.  It has been correcting and moving sideways just as crude oil has done above virtually the same amount of time.  Bear markets don’t last forever just as bulls don’t.  Take a look at this weekly chart:

World War III 6 SILVER

2011           2012             2013             2014            2015

RSI which is the first study under the chart has CLEAR BULLISH Divergences, slow stochastic’s is clearly giving a buy signal and MACD show virtually no Volatility. In terms of time and price Fibonacci has been quite an accurate overlay and trend lines are now under challenge from BELOW.  A clear Bear wedge is in place and the market would look to be coiled like a spring to leap higher.  Now let’s look at a graph of gross SHORTS provided by www.theshortsideoflong.com :

World War III 7 SILVER

Any kind of move higher should light a BONFIRE under the shorts.  Typically when it has been this high a powerful move is in the offing.  Could this be the beginning of the end of the bear market that began in 2011?

It doesn’t matter whether it is food, energy or precious metals it appears the next legs higher for the commodity complex could be on the near horizon after almost 4 years of corrective activity.

Federal Reserve FOLLIES

The market saw a crash yesterday after Janet Yellen gave her remarks.  The crash was in the VIX volatility index and it was down almost 13% signifying the magnitude of the moral hazard her words meant to the markets, market makers and investors.  Worldwide stock and bomb er bond markets have NO FEAR and she fed the beast of insane behavior.  She also ventured where no Fed Chairman had publicly gone before in that she commented on Stock market valuations.  Saying she saw no problems with valuations.  Well a quick look at www.dshort.com market valuations reveals a Janet in Wonderland perspective on a historical basis.

World War III 8 historical basis

Look carefully at this chart.  We are at valuations which have PRECEDED every crash in the last 100 years (1929, 1937, 2000, and 2008) except 2000, which went insanely above current levels.  What do you think is the chance that this is not a prelude to a similar resolution?  That this time is different?

In my opinion the greatest manmade disaster and OPPORTUNITY in history is unfolding in every corner of the world.  Are you diversified or operating with EYES WIDE SHUT?  Are you prepared to turn it into opportunity by properly diversifying your portfolio?  Adding absolute return investments which have the potential to thrive (up and down markets) regardless of what unfolds economically or politically?  This is what I do for investors; help them diversify into investments which are created to potentially thrive in the storm.  For a personal FREE consultation with me CLICK HERE!

Political correctness that short circuits an invaluable gathering of EXPERIENCE

John Stossel writing at reason.com, June 4:

I’ve had hundreds of employees whom I paid nothing: student interns. Unpaid internships were allowed for years, because it was understood that interns learn by working. My interns learned a lot. Many went on to successful careers in journalism. One won a Pulitzer Prize. Many said they learned more working for me than at college (despite $50,000 tuition). They benefited and I benefited. Win-win.

So for year’s government ignored Labor Department rules that decreed unpaid internships legal only if an employer gets “no immediate advantage” from the intern. Geez, who wants that? Of course I got an advantage from my interns. That’s why I employed them!

Recently, President Barack Obama’s Labor Department announced it would enforce the internship rules, and some interns sued their former employers, claiming internships were “unfair.” Charlie Rose forked over a quarter of a million dollars. Word spread, so now unpaid internships are vanishing.

Some people say it’s good that unpaid internships are gone, because they are unfair to poor people, who can’t afford volunteer work. But getting rid of opportunities does nothing to help anyone. Employers lose and students lose.

Difficult as it can seem to make your own way in this world without a phony government promise that you’ll be taken care of, or that every job will pay at least $15 an hour, success happens when markets are relatively free. Individual initiative creates new things, companies, job opportunities—whole new ways of life—that make the world better for all of us.

In closing, Iraq just keeps going down the rabbit hole and will continue to do so.  Southern Iraq is where the bulk of Iraqi oil production takes place and probably will soon be a territory of Iran.  In anticipation of the battlefront to move to them the oil majors in southern Iraq are pulling out their personnel.  How long do you think oil production will continue without the professionals that keep it GOING?   What do you think the price of oil will be if OPEC quits supplying the 10% of production Iraq represents?  Keep in mind that the EPA is effectively shutting down the coal fired electric supply’s (about 40%) in the United States over the next several years.  A perfect storm is rapidly unfolding in the energy sector and the next decade could be brutal.  Do you think the blind ideologues in Washington care about the public at large?  The answer is self-evident. Think about what impact their policy’s may have 1, 5 or 10 years into the future.

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See you next week, Ty

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