“Davidson” submits

The ASA Staffing Index is a favorite of mine because it comes out weekly The ASA has been a good indicator for future broad employment trends, economic activity and importantly for us as investors it provides guidance for the general direction of markets.

Temp Staffing

This week the CAB(Chemical Activity Barometer) was released at a 6yr peak with previous months revised higher. This indicator measures chemical production in the US, goes back to 1919 and has a proven record of forecasting turns in economic activity, i.e. economic lows and peaks. A higher CAB in this report is a good indication that economic activity is expanding and equity markets have historically moved higher in response. See the CAB chart and link.

Temp Staffing 2

Remember, markets ($SPY) are mostly a psychological response to investor perceptions of economic trends. Only at the major lows, do markets reflect prices based on long term business values. This is because it is the buying activity of Value Investors causes market lows.

Stock and bond prices reflect investor perceptions of underlying business activity. Market prices DO NOT CONTROL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY! The reverse is true, but one can only see this by looking longer term.

My expectation continues to be that we have 5yrs-7yrs left in the current economic cycle and that housing and construction are the components just making their presence felt.

Via ValuePlays