Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB) has gone through a lot of changes over 10 years and analyst Brian Wieser has been following the stock carefully since its IPO, making successful recommendations along the way. In addition to earning high returns from Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB), Brian has also successfully recommended other Internet companies such as, Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR), salesforce.com, inc. (NYSE:CRM) and Nielsen Hldg NV (NYSE:NLSN). This year Brian has only seen positive returns, earning him the number 36 spot out of 2386 analysts with a 7.2% average return over S&P-500, and a 73% success rate of recommended stocks.
Brian’s first recommendation of the year was to SELL Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR) after reevaluating the importance of MoPub, the leading mobile application solution, and reconsidering the stock’s value accordingly. With a slight change in his model, Brian estimated, “MoPub will generate an incremental $4 million for Twitter during the fourth quarter.” His new revenue estimate is $234 million for the December quarter, and for all 2014 he believes that Twitter will report $1.355 billion in revenue. Based on these numbers Brian sees Twitter as “a stellar company with tremendous promise.” But, “the company’s current share price is difficult to justify,” and “Twitter has probably been impacted by limited float after the success of its IPO.” Even just by looking at “the stock’s reactions to news events, shares seem to be driven by momentum rather than fundamentals.” Brian recommended to SELL Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR) and has already earned +12.3% over S&P-500.
When Brian initiated coverage of Twitter around the time of its IPO, Brian recommended BUY TWTR and earned +73.3% over S&P-500. Brian noted, “Metrics for current periods are challenged by Twitter’s small scale currently, but on our 2018 forecast our price target imputes Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR)’s EV/FCF multiple at around 21x vs. our current estimates for Google and Facebook which are both trading presently around 19x.”
Brian’s next recommendation also brought him out on top when he advised BUY Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB) after the release of their 4Q13 results. “The company posted 76% ad revenue growth, an acceleration from 3Q13. This growth compares with our forecast of 65%. While our already-positive, view on 2014 was a bigger positive, as it was lower than we had forecast.” Brian also noted that, “the company is exercising discipline with its expenses while it continues to expand rapidly.” Brian earned +5.1% over S&P-500.
At the end of 2013 Brian’s research led him to advise BUY Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB), bringing in another high return. Even though 3Q13 reports were solid, the overwhelming sentiment at the time was that teens were shying away from Facebook. However, Brian believed that those people were over-reacting and argued, “As teens aren’t the entities spending advertising on Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB), there is little to worry about near-term, certainly. Of course, investors are concerned if these audiences favor other social media, However, so long as they can be reached on Facebook to a degree and so long as Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB) has a unique capability to reach more total people than any other media owner, Facebook retains advantage in its ad sales efforts against most advertisers.” Brian earned +19.7% over S&P-500 with this recommendation.
Most recently, Brian recommended BUY Nielsen Hldg NV (NYSE:NLSN), saying “Although market considerations are primarily responsible for the stock’s decline in recent weeks, in our view the stock was and remains fairly valued at around $48 using costs of capital that align with those used to value other companies under our coverage.” So far, Brian has earned +2.5% over S&P-500 on this recommendation.
Facebook, and other Internet companies, will continue to have their ups and downs. Will Brian continue to earn great returns on his recommendations? To continue following Brian’s recommendations, as well as other analyst recommendations, download TipRanks and start following financial advice you can trust.
