Hottest links for Monday, January 20th, the late edition (see Weekend’s edition here). Get our free daily newsletter (which HAS BEEN RECENTLY UPDATED) and never miss a single linkfest. Also, now if you sign up you will get our new e-book on value investing.

Top stories are included below.  Today, we’ve got Alan Greenspan being taken to task about risk, an in-depth look at the labor force participation rate, and the Pope putting up his Harley for auction to help a soup kitchen.

Hottest Links: Stories

Value Investing

What Alan Greenspan Gets Wrong About Risk

Economist Kenneth Arrow was a statistician during World War II. One of his jobs was analyzing weather forecasts made months into the future. The forecasts, he found, were pretty much useless. [Morgan Housel, The Motley Fool]

What My Little Girl Taught Me About Investing Wisely

If you’re a parent of a small child, you most likely hear this question several times during a day – “Why?” While all children are inquisitive, there are some who love to prick your brain by asking questions until they find a satisfactory reply from you. [Vishal Khandewal, Safal Niveshak]

The Asian Horse for Value Investors: The Tale of Cosmax vs L’Oreal SA (EPA:OR) (OTCMKTS:LRLCY)

The Three Apples is the corporate symbol of Korea’s Cosmax Inc (KRX:044820) (MV $720 million), an ugly-duckling cosmetics company that the Bamboo Innovator decided to pay a visit amongst the over two thousand companies listed in Korea after the conference. [Koon Boon Kee, BeyondProxy]

Perceived Risk vs. Real Risk: A Key to Successful Value Investing

Value investing involves searching for investments where the perceived risk is greater than the real or actual risk. Yes, we like high risk investments; that is high perceived risk! [Ken Faulkenberry, The Arbor Investment Planner]

Funds

Weighing the Week Ahead: More “Experts” Predicting a Market Top

The continuing attention to earnings reports will split attention this week with the ongoing debate over valuation and a potential bubble in stocks. Any earnings stumble will be portrayed as evidence. [Jeff Miller, A Dash of Insight]

Hottest Links

What The Unemployment And Labor Force Participation Rates Would Be

The labor force participation rate is the ratio of Americans counted in the labor force to the total civilian noninstitutional adult population, while the unemployment rate is the ratio of those without a job who are counted in the labor force (i.e., unemployed and searching for work) to the total labor force. [Matthew Boesler, Business Insider]

Discouraged workers Hottest Links

Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC) Is Actively Preparing For The Chinese January 31 Trust Default

Last week we were the first to raise the very real and imminent threat of a default for a Chinese wealth management product (WMP) default – specifically China Credit Trust’s Credit Equals Gold #1 (CEQ1) – and its potential contagion concerns. [Tyler Durden, Zero Hedge]

Hottest Links

The Hollywood indicator belongs on the cutting-room floor

The “Wolf of Wall Street” marks the beginning of the end for this bull run. So goes the Hollywood Indicator that made the rounds from StockTwit’s Howard Lindzon (h/t Need to Know) last week. [Barbara Kollmeyer, The Tell]

Hottest Links

Hedge Fund Bears take grisly view in China

Hedge Fund bears are circling the China market, with sceptical managers predicting that 2014 could be the year that will see a reckoning in the world’s second-biggest economy. [Yvonne Chan, Asian Investor]

Bubble Guppies

These are undeniably bubbles, all of them exhibiting the types of classic price rises which are normally accompanied by the idea that “You’d better pay up now or you’ll be paying up even higher next month!” [Joshua M Brown, The Reformed Broker]

The Rise Of The Hedge Fund Startup Investor (Again)

Coatue isn’t the first “cross-over” fund (an investment fund that crosses over to the private from the public markets) to emerge in technology investing. Integral Capital Partners, co-founded by Roger McNamee and John Powell, was one of the first to start doing this in the nineties. [Leena Rao, TechCrunch]

Bitcoin’s Derivative Layer That Allows The Virtual To Control Real Things

‘d like to introduce what some in the media have coined (no pun intended) Bitcoin 2.0 (which is actually just the true implementation of bitcoin), otherwise known as UtlraCoin. [Reggie Middleton, ZeroHedge]

After Mulling Sale, Business Insider Raising a New Round of Funding

Business Insider — which rejected an informal acquisition offer of around $100 million floated by AOL last year and has discussed other sale efforts — is likely to be raising a new round from its existing investors, including Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos. [Kara Swisher, Recode]

Shorts set to pounce as stocks seen pricey, Fed pulls back

Investors who make a living betting that stock prices will fall are happy to forget 2013: The S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) gained nearly 30 percent while Credit Suisse Group AG (NYSE:CS)’s index of hedge funds with a dedicated short bias lost 25 percent. [Rodrigo Campos and Sam Forgione, Chicago Tribune]

Hottest Links: Not the Onion

Pope’s Harley Goes Up For Auction To Help Rome Soup KitchenThe auction, set for Feb. 6 at the Grand Palais in Paris, offers a The money raised will go to for the renovation of Don Luigi di Liegro hostel and soup kitchen based at Rome’s Termini railway station. [Scott Neuman, NPR]