hundreds of important cell types from induced pluripotent stem cells.
The knowledge that will be gained from growing numbers of fully sequenced genomes, including ours, will help scientists learn to engineer fixes to problems caused by aging as well as by genetic mutations. The ultimate goal is to rejuvenate all the cells of our bodies. Patrick and I have taken the first step by having our genomes sequenced and our cells rejuvenated and banked in preparation for a time when it is legal in some jurisdiction to perform the regenerative therapies we’re waiting for.
Yes, Pat and I are part of *that* group. Can we, as Ray Kurzweil said, “live long enough to live forever”? Neither of us thinks that total regeneration is possible in the next twenty years; but partial, organ-by-organ regeneration will clearly be available. So we may have to settle for rejuvenating one organ at a time as they learn how to get those cells from the lab into our bodies, thereby fixing the problems of aging one by one as they crop up – until we can fix them altogether.
Aging is becoming an engineering problem. So are cancer and other diseases. Patrick introduced me a few years ago to a private company, Bexion, that in a few months will start phase one human trials on a molecule that cures any cancer it comes in contact with in mice. Will the cure work in humans? We’ll see. While that would be nice for me as a tiny investor in the company, the implications for humanity are self-evident. But whether it is Bexion or any of the dozens of other companies seeking a cure for cancer, a cure will be found. In fact, one of the real risks to my investment is not that Bexion is not successful with its technology, but that another company finds a cure that works better and cheaper and makes our research obsolete almost as soon as we get launched.
Patrick and I began to share our enthusiasm for the accelerating nature of change over five years ago, and we have talked weekly if not daily ever since our first conversations. It is hard to contain our excitement about the prospects for our human future. And that future is being created not just in biotech but also in a dozen other fields where we are seeing life-altering technologies turn up every day.
But the personal and economic impacts will be most pronounced as a result of the biotech revolution. It is not just new cures that will be the source of that impact. It is the increase in human capital that will become available to all of us. How many people we know have died from some disease that will become preventable in the next 10-15-20 years – people who, if they had lived, would have added so much more to the human experiment? Living longer is not just about the pleasure that we will gain from having a longer time with our loved ones; it’s also about the contributions we can make to society, made possible because we are living longer and healthier lives.
I encounter people all the time who give me the tired old argument that they don’t want to live longer. They see old people in nursing homes and don’t want that sort of life to be their own protracted future. I can certainly sympathize with that point of view. My mother is now totally bedridden; and while she is still mentally active, a great deal of the joy of life is gone. Dad’s time in a nursing home was not fun, either.
If that were our future – just growing ever older and more frail – I’m not sure I would want to sign up for that. But that dreary prospect is not what Patrick and I are talking about. Instead, we are talking about not just increasing our lifespans but increasing our healthspans. We are following (and in some cases participating in) technologies that have remarkable short-term implications for the problems of aging. (For the record, I am 64 and Pat is 63.) As I mentioned above, the implications of advances in computational research on nutraceuticals is simply astounding.
The first human being who will live 150 years is alive today. Pat and I hope that person is somewhat older than we are so they can blaze a trail that we can follow, but we are perfectly willing to be guinea pigs if and when the time comes. I told Mike West (only somewhat jokingly) that I don’t want to be the first person whose body parts he tries to rejuvenate. But I would like to be the 100th when they have the science down. Mike is shopping for a venue for those first procedures even as I write. That he is having to look outside the United States to utilize research done in the United States is testimony to the backward-looking focus of the FDA, which is mired in a history of regulating medical treatments that are quickly becoming antiquated and that are nothing like what we are seeing done today. But I hope even that bureaucratically encumbered and backward-looking regime will change. Japan, for instance has just modernized their regulatory structure and given us a model that we should emulate.
It might be helpful to think of the race to defeat aging as something of a horse race. While Mike West and BioTime may be the lead horse today (and in our opinion they are), we are barely out of the starting gate.
The drive for regeneration is just one of a hundred different life-impacting transformations that we are going to see over the next twenty years. There are a hundred different racecourses with thousands of horses all being jockeyed to some distant finish line.
We are involved not just in an industrial revolution but in a total Human Transformation Revolution. If we limit our focus to the problems created by government and central banks, we may be distracted from the truely epochal events happening all around us today that are going to give us amazing opportunities for investment growth and the creation of wealth. There is more to life than simply watching the Federal Reserve.
We have to be keenly aware of our surroundings as we explore this exciting new world, avoiding dangers and pitfalls as they present themselves, but keeping our eye on the destination.
I’m running long in this letter today, and so I’ll close, but the Human Transformation Revolution will be a theme we’ll return to from time to time this year.
And if you’ll indulge me for a marketing moment, my regular readers will have noticed that Patrick Cox has come to work with us at Mauldin Economics to write a newsletter called Transformational Technology Alert.
This journey of exploration and greater understanding isn’t always going to be fun or easy. We fully expect to end up exploring a few dead-end canyons as well as finding our share of fabulous and fruitful valleys. But both Patrick and I firmly believe this journey will alter the course of human history. It will, in short, allow us (and you) to live longer, happier, healthier, more prosperous lives. Patrick’s new letter is our way of inviting you to join us on the journey. And maybe we can all make a little money along the way.
You can begin reading Patrick’s letter for 50% off the normal price (and lock in that low rate for a very long time) by clicking here. In addition to regular monthly issues, we’ll send you several special reports on why we think BioTime is a uniquely promising company, along with reports on other very hopeful technologies and companies that Pat has discovered.
Dubai, Riyadh, Vancouver, Edmonton, and Regina
Next Wednesday evening I’ll fly to Dubai (via London) to explore the city for a few days and perhaps visit Abu Dhabi before flying on to Riyadh for a speech. It is my first trip in 25 years to the Middle East, and I’m curious as to what I will see. I then return home for a few days before heading off on a speaking tour for CFA chapters in Vancouver, Edmonton, and Regina. I notice that Regina is -8°F (-22 Celsius) today. I will have to go shopping for a little extra cold-weather gear before I head up there.
My partners Olivier Garret and Ed D’Agostino and other Mauldin Economics associates are flying in Monday and Tuesday for planning meetings on our course for the coming year. On Tuesday evening we will be joined by Jon Sundt and Jack Rivkin of Altegris Investments, along with several other leading investment professionals, and we’ll be talking about how best to help you in your personal investment explorations. I will be cooking for 13 of us as we think hard about how a transforming world will affect our businesses and how we can deliver better products and services to you. As I mentioned a few weeks ago, we will soon be launching two new newsletters that focus specifically on portfolio design and construction. This project has been in the works for some time. Watch this space for how you can access these letters, hopefully for free. I am truly excited about the changes in what we will be able to offer; but rest assured, Thoughts from the Frontline will not change. It will be free, as always!
It truly is time to hit the send button, as my yoga instructor will be here in a moment. Sadly, all of our research has turned up no magic pill that will take the place of exercise and a healthy lifestyle. I am beginning to feel positive effects from working with her, although I must hasten to add that what I am doing does not resemble what you think of as yoga. This is more like Remedial Stretching 101 for someone who has sat on too many planes and in front of two many computers for far too long. But the plans we are making here at Mauldin Economics really do need me to be involved for another ten years at least, so I need to make sure my body is up to the task. It will be a long time before we can replace even a small part of it.
Have a great week, and I’ll write you from Dubai.
Your wondering where my flying car is analyst,
John Mauldin
(c) Millennium Wave Advisors
