This post first appeared on FloatingPath
Recap of this week’s U.S. economic events:
- ISM manufacturing PMI decreased slightly but stayed in expansion in December at 57.0.
- The Chicago PMI decreased but stayed well into expansion in December at 59.1.
- The Dallas Fed’s regional manufacturing survey expanded to +3.1 in December.
- The Case-Shiller House Price Index increased 0.2% in October.
- Construction spending increased 1.0% in November.
- Consumer confidence improved to 78.1 in December.
- The Restaurant Performance Index moved further into expansion in November with a reading of 101.2.
- The national gasoline price increased in December to $3.28 per gallon.
- Initial weekly jobless claims decreased slightly to 339k.
- Weekly intermodal rail traffic was up 10.7% year over year.
- The weekly National Financial Conditions Index has stabilized around -0.94, indicating loose financial conditions.
- Strong Christmas store sales were fueled by last-minute promotions.
- M2 increased 0.21% week over week.
Further reading this week:
The below plots show the absolute strength of various leading economic indicators as well as whether those indicators are improving or worsening. They are scaled by how many standard deviations they are away from their historical movements and stature. Indicators greater than 2.0 sigma in either direction have been rounded down to 2.0.