FOMC Statement Fed

October 2013 December 2013 Comments
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September generally suggests that economic activity has continued to expand at a moderate pace. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in October indicates that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. Shades their view up, but I don’t see much to support it.
Indicators of labor market conditions have shown some further improvement, but the unemployment rate remains elevated. Labor market conditions have shown further improvement; the unemployment rate has declined but remains elevated. Weasel words because the participation rate is falling, and wages are stagnant.
Available data suggest that household spending and business fixed investment advanced, while the recovery in the housing sector slowed somewhat in recent months. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, while the recovery in the housing sector slowed somewhat in recent months. No real change.  Why the extra weasel words this time?
Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint may be diminishing. Shades fiscal drag down, but the deficit is shrinking, so where do they get this?
Apart from fluctuations due to changes in energy prices, inflation has been running below the Committee’s longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable. Inflation has been running below the Committee’s longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable. Calls energy special, but it plays into all we do.  TIPS are showing slightly higher inflation expectations since the last meeting. 5y forward 5y inflation implied from TIPS is near 2.65%, up 0.08% from September.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. No change. Any time they mention the “statutory mandate,” it is to excuse bad policy.
The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will pick up from its recent pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will pick up from its recent pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. No change.  Monetary policy is omnipotent on the asset side, right?
The Committee sees the downside risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having diminished, on net, since last fall. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having become more nearly balanced. Financial conditions are looser.  That’s largely due to the loose monetary policy globally.
The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, but it anticipates that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term. The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, and it is monitoring inflation developments carefully for evidence that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term. Shades their view on inflation down.  CPI is at 1.2% now, yoy.
Taking into account the extent of federal fiscal retrenchment over the past year, the Committee sees the improvement in economic activity and labor market conditions since it began its asset purchase program as consistent with growing underlying strength in the broader economy. Taking into account the extent of federal fiscal retrenchment since the inception of its current asset purchase program, the Committee sees the improvement in economic activity and labor market conditions over that period as consistent with growing underlying strength in the broader economy. No significant change, but switches the spotlight to the asset purchase program, suggesting that it has helped.
However, the Committee decided to await more evidence that progress will be sustained before adjusting the pace of its purchases. Worthless sentence eliminated.
Accordingly, the Committee decided to continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month. In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions, the Committee decided to modestly reduce the pace of its asset purchases. Beginning in January, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $35 billion per month rather than $40 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $40 billion per month rather than $45 billion per month. Reduces the purchase rate by $5 billion each on Treasuries and MBS
The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. No change
Taken together, these actions should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative, which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with the Committee’s dual mandate. The Committee’s sizable and still-increasing holdings of longer-term securities should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative, which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with the Committee’s dual mandate. No real change.
The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months and will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months and will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. No change. Useless paragraph.
In judging when to moderate the pace of asset purchases, the Committee will, at its coming meetings, assess whether incoming information continues to support the Committee’s expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective. If incoming information broadly supports the Committee’s expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and

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