This post first appeared on FloatingPath
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports in its employment situation release this morning that +204k jobs were added in October. The September job gains were revised to +163k.
The leisure and hospitality, professional services, and retail trade sectors led in new jobs added this month.
- Mining and Logging: +5k payrolls compared to +5k last month.
- Construction: +11k payrolls compared to +18k last month.
- Manufacturing: +19k payrolls compared to +4k last month.
- Wholesale Trade: -5.4k payrolls compared to +14.3k last month.
- Retail Trade: +44.4k payrolls compared to +22.3k last month.
- Transportation: +0.0k payrolls compared to +29.5k last month.
- Information Services: +5k payrolls compared to +4k last month.
- Financial Activities: +7k payrolls compared to -1k last month.
- Professional Services: +44k payrolls compared to +32k last month.
- Education: +23k payrolls compared to +6k last month.
- Leisure and Hospitality: +53k payrolls compared to +13k last month.
- Other Services: +6k payrolls compared to +3k last month.
- Government: -8k payrolls compared to +13k last month.
Here’s the cumulative changes in payrolls by industry since July 2007. You can see leisure and hospitality has still added more jobs than any other sector during this period.
The unemployment rate (U-3) increased in October to 7.3% from 7.2% in September while the broader unemployment rate (U-6) increased to 13.8% from 13.6%.
The labor force participation rate decreased from 63.2% to 62.8%.That’s the lowest the labor force participation rate has been since March of 1978.
The employment-population ratio also decreased moving to 58.3% from 58.6%.
The labor force participation rate among all men decreased in October to 69.2% from 69.7% in September. That’s the lowest participation rate on record!
The labor force participation rate among all women decreased to 56.9% from 57.1%, the lowest its been since October of 1998.
The labor force participation rate by age group:
- 16 to 19: 32.8% compared to 34.8% last month.
- 20 to 24: 70.6% compared to 71.1% last month.
- 25 to 54: 80.5% compared to 80.9% last month.
- 55+: 40.0% compared to 40.1% last month.
Among production and non-supervisory employees, average weekly hours worked decreased to 33.6 from 33.7 last month. Average hourly earnings increased to $20.26 from $20.24, making average weekly earnings of $680.74 from $682.09 last month.
The average duration of unemployment decreased in October to 36.1 weeks compared to 36.9 weeks in September.
I always include a longer time frame on this chart to provide some context of just how bad this recession has been for the long-term unemployed. This is still the leading employment indicator that shows how “this time is different.”
Percent of unemployed by duration:
- Less than 5 weeks: 24.5% compared to 23.1% last month.
- 5 to 14 weeks: 23.6% compared to 24.0% last month.
- 15 to 26 weeks: 15.8% compared to 16.0% last month.
- 27 weeks and over: 36.1% compared to 36.9% last month.
Employment suffered the most for the older age brackets in October. In particular, the unemployment rate of the 45 to 54 group increased 0.4%, a fairly dramatic one month move. The unemployment rate of age groups:
- 16 to 17: 24.1% compared to 25.8% last month.
- 18 to 19: 21.1% compared to 19.9% last month.
- 20 to 24: 12.5% compared to 12.9% last month.
- 25 to 34: 7.3% compared to 7.4% last month.
- 35 to 44: 5.8% compared to 5.6% last month.
- 45 to 54: 5.9% compared to 5.5% last month.
- 55+: 5.4% compared to 5.3% last month.
The unemployment rate for men decreased to 7.6% from 7.7%. The unemployment rate for women increased to 6.9% from 6.7%.
The unemployment rate among all veterans in October was 6.9% from September’s 6.5%.
The unemployment rate among male veterans increased to 6.7% from 6.3% last month. The wildly volatile female veteran unemployment rate was 8.0%, up from the 7.5% it was last month.
Of the 4 racial groups tracked by the BLS, only Asians experienced a lower unemployment rate than the month prior:
- White: 6.3% compared to 6.3% last month.
- Black: 13.1% compared to 12.9% last month.
- Asian: 5.2% compared to 5.3% last month.
- Hispanic: 9.2% compared to 9.0% last month.
Unemployment rates by education level:
- Less than a high school diploma: 10.9% compared to 10.3% last month.
- High school graduates: 7.3% from 7.6% last month.
- Some college or Associate degree: 6.3% from 6.0% last month.
- Bachelor’s degree or higher: 3.8% from 3.7% last month.
In a completely opposite move from last month’s report, October was an unusually negative month for those seeking full-time jobs. By counting the total number of employed persons by employment status, we find that -623k full-time jobs were added in October as compared with +691k full-time jobs in September. Part-time jobs shifted -127k in October as compared with a -594k change in September.
This is yet another dramatic shift, and is the biggest single month hit to full-time jobs since April 2012.
Full-time jobs remain well below their previous high. The cumulative change in part-time and full-time jobs since July 2007:
The total number of part-time employed in October were 27.278 million from 27.405 million in September. The total number of full-time persons were 116.276 million from 116.899 million last month.
This means that the ratio of full-time workers to total workers in October was 81.00%, a decrease from September’s 81.01%, and historically very low.
Overall, despite not a terrible headline jobs figure of +204k, this is an exceptionally bad report. The full-time job losses cancel out any optimism generated last month.
Further, despite the beloved manufacturing industry adding jobs, this month’s gains were heavily allocated to low-skilled positions. If there was a silver lining to this report, it would be the reduction in average duration of unemployment, but still that remains abysmally high.
Full table of employment changes in October: