The Nomura Individual Investor Market View Index (Nomura I-View Index) saw a slight month-on-month increase in the number of investors who expect the Nikkei to go up over the next three months, but a decrease in the number who expect a large increase of 2,000 points or more.

Rise in Nomura I-View index

The index went up 0.6 points from 52.4 to 53.0 in October, while the proportion of respondents expecting a rise of more than 2,000 dropped 2.4 points and the proportion expecting a rise of 2,000 dropped 2.2 percent. Correspondingly, the percentage of people expecting a rise of about 1,000 points went up 4.9 percent.

Nomura I-view Index nikkei outlook 1013

International affairs interfering with stock prices

International affairs are expected to be the most important factor affecting stock prices again this month, but its response rate fell 6.2 points from September. Domestic corporate earnings saw the biggest jump in responses although it is still only the fourth largest expected factor.

I-view Index impact factors on stock market 1013

Capital goods highest on Nomura I-View Index

The diffusion index for capital goods went up strongly this month, rising 12.2 points, reaching its highest point since the Nomura I-View Index began, while consumer goods fell a further 10.8 points to -16.3, reaching the lowest point in the index’s history. The DI is determined by asking respondents to name one attractive and one unattractive sector to invest in, and then measuring the net difference for each sector.

The number of respondents expecting the yen to gain against the dollar fell 19.9 points, down to just 38.2 percent, but the yen was still chosen by respondents as the most appealing currency with its DI rising 0.8 points. The US dollar fell from second to third place among currencies as its DI fell 6.2 points.

Goods and services prices

Asked about goods and services, 68.1 percent of respondents expect prices to go up, with most of them, 34.3 percent of the total, expecting less than 2 percent over the next three months. Another 27.4 percent expect a price increase between 2 and 5 percent, a 4.9 percent over last month.

The Nomura I-View Index survey is conducted at the beginning of every month by Nomura Securities, sending 3,000 surveys to individual investors who have previously interacted with the firm and accepting the first 1,000 responses that are received.