Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone demand is expected to be at 34.5 million units in the third quarter of 2013, which is above the previous forecast of 31 million. Consensus estimates in the low 30 million, according to Morgan Stanley analysts Katy L. Huberty, Jerry Liu and Scott Schmitz.


Estimates ahead of consensus

The new estimate is ahead by 2.5 million more than the previous estimate by smartphone tracker at the end of the August. Another positive for demand that the tracker indicates is a 15 percent quarter-over-quarter surge in the Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone shipments in the third quarter of 2013, which is similar to the 16 percent rise at the time of iPhone 5.

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) has not published the report of its iPhone unit sales on Monday for the first time in three years. Pre-orders in 2013 are not as much as they were in previous years, as Apple has not selected iPhone 5S for pre-orders, a phone that could have been a choice for early adopters, believe the analysts.

Tracker used by Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley uses the “AlphaWise Smartphone Tracker,” which considers sell-through data using web search analysis. For the present numbers, data through September 15 has been taken that captures “early interest in the new iPhone 5c/5s.”

 The tracker used includes web search data up to September 15th, incorporating the announcement date, September 10, and the start of pre-orders on September 13th. It includes the U.S., UK, Germany, France, China and Japan, where the iPhone will be launched this week. Model forecasts expect that demand trends after last week’s announcement will go by a similar pattern as 2012.

Other estimates, not very encouraging for Apple

In a report released a few days back, Citi analysts estimated the sales number for iPhone 5C and iPhone 5S for the first week to be 7.75 million, against 7 million for the iPhone 5. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)’s iPhone 5C is expected to sell 2.2 million through pre-orders, and iPhone 5 units were over 2 million. The estimated numbers include the fact that, for the first time, Apple has included China & Hong Kong, NTT DoCoMo, in the first list.

Citing a source at the Unites States wireless carrier, a report from Reuters say that pre-orders for the plastic-encased brightly-colored iPhone 5C has not been encouraging, and supplies of the iPhone 5S and iPhone 5C has not been up to the mark.