Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC)’s next earnings report is still months away, but analysts at JPMorgan believe that the aggressive stance taken by management in the last earnings report will be revised downward. They point to PC data points which are still disappointing.

Intel

Negative data points bad for Intel

Analysts Christopher Danely, Shaon Baqui and Sameer Kalucha issued a report to investors this week saying that several negative data points over the last few weeks have indicated that trouble may be ahead for Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC). They believe continued weak demand for PCs poses a great risk to both Intel’s aggressive guidance and consensus estimates. The analysts cite lower notebook shipment expectations from Acer, ASUS and Taiwanese notebook manufacturer Compal.

The analysts note that Intel is more than 80 percent exposed to the PC end market. As such, they remain Neutral on the company.

Intel’s new chips due out soon

Although Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) is releasing its new Haswell microprocessor, they don’t think it will move the needle much for the company’s earnings. They note that it does provide higher performance with less power needed but don’t see evidence that PC companies are increasing their purchases of it.

Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) is also working on its low power chip Atom Bay Trail, but they don’t think that one will drive incremental PC demand either because the market already has plenty of low price touch devices. The analysts said the company hasn’t had a new processor drive PC demand in almost two decades.

Intel’s guidance at risk—like last year

JPMorgan analysts suspect that Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC)’s double digit growth guidance for the second half of this year is too aggressive. They said in order for the company to hit its flat year over year guidance this year, it needs 12 percent revenue growth in the second half of this year, which hasn’t happened since 2009. The analysts note that since tablets started taking over the PC market in 2010, Intel’s second half revenue growth has only averaged around 4 percent.

They also believe that this year’s disparity between guidance and PC demand will be similar to last year’s. Last July, Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) guided for about 14 percent growth in the second half of the year on expectations that new products would drive growth. However, revenue for the second half of last year ended up being flat from the first half because of soft PC demand. Intel lowered its guidance several times last year, and they believe the company will do so again this year.

The analysts maintained their $18 per share price target on Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC).