What will this fall bring in terms of the iPhone 6? Or will Apple fans be disappointed again because it will be the iPhone 5S unveiled? At this point there seems to be a major split going on between Apple fans and analysts. Fans seem to be convinced that the iPhone 6 will be out this year, while analysts, on the other hand, think the iPhone 5S will be out this fall.

iPhone 6

What’s really going on with iPhone 6 conversations?

It’s important to understand what is really expected of the iPhone 6. There’s one key reason fans have latched onto that moniker instead of the next one that would logically follow Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)’s numbering system. They want something entirely new, and the best way for Apple to show that it has something completely different is by skipping the iPhone 5S.

What Apple’s capex says about the iPhone 6

Jefferies analysts Peter Misek, Jason North and Billy Kim took a closer look at Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)’s capital expenditures for the rest of the year. They see a possible $3.3 billion being spent in the current quarter, compared to the $2.8 billion the company spent in the last quarter. They also note that for 2013, Apple’s projected capital expenditures are $8.5 billion, compared to the $10.4 billion it spent last year.

They believe that this means the iPhone 5S is in production and that it won’t be much different than the iPhone 5. As a result, capital expenditures would be lower this year. However, they’re looking for them to ramp up next year as Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) begins producing the iPhone 6, which they believe will utilize different screen technology. Also Apple has already signed a deal with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSM) for its chips, so there’s another shift that must be dealt with from a financial standpoint.

The iPhone 6 principle

So will Apple be ready to deliver the major upgrade fans are looking for this year? It sounds very unlikely when looking at the capital expenditures data provided by Jefferies. But there’s no denying that Apple still has the strength of a strong brand behind it. The question is going to be how long that brand will be able to stand without any major improvements being released to support it.