Both the traditional and alternative asset managers will begin reporting 2Q13 earnings the week of July 15, with BlackRock, Inc. (NYSE:BLK) and The Blackstone Group L.P. (NYSE:BX) out of the gate first. Daniel T. Fannon, equity analyst at Jefferies says in a new report that the firm’s estimates revisions vary considerably amongst managers as performance across markets also varied considerably. Fund flow trends generally decelerated throughout the quarter. On a relative basis they believe Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. (NYSE:AMG) remains best positioned among asset managers for growth in the current environment. Further details on the big asset managers via Jefferies below.

Asset Managers Company Names

 

Asset Managers Profitability Higher in 2Q

The majority of traditional asset managers will see improved core profitability in 2Q as a result of higher average asset levels and the roll-off of 1Q seasonal expenses. However, earnings growth is likely to vary considerably from one manager to the next due to asset mix as domestic equity market returns were positive (S&P 500: +2.9%), while international equity markets (MSCI EAFE: -1.0%) and domestic fixed income markets (BarCap Aggregate Bond Index: -2.3%) were negative. Our estimates for q/q EPS growth ranges from -7.0% to +7.0%, with 2.3% being the average. Note, this excludes Asset Managers, BlackRock, Inc. (NYSE:BLK) and Legg Mason Inc (NYSE:LM), whose earnings are impacted by one-time items.

Asset Managers  Flows Pause, Fixed Income Turns Negative

While aggregate flows for the quarter will still be positive for many Asset Managers, June was a tough month for all as net flows weakened and/or turned negative on commentary from the Fed. The ensuing jump in Treasury yields spooked many investors, resulting in a broad exit from taxable bonds (active and ETF) and a further softening of equity flows. We anticipate Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. (NYSE:AMG) is best positioned in the current environment and will lead the pack in terms of long-term inflows (+7.1% organic growth rate), while Janus Capital Group Inc (NYSE:JNS) is likely to report the largest long-term outflows (-10.2% organic growth rate).

Asset Managers 2H13 Outlook More Clouded

The June events highlighted how sensitive the Asset Managers flow environment is to macro factors and provided a window into how the flow picture may evolve once we do get into a rising rate environment. Industry flows weakened throughout the quarter even prior to the Fed commentary, and as we look ahead we foresee continued movement out of fixed income in the short term. Equity funds are poised to benefit from this shift, however timing is still uncertain. Additionally, with market volatility potentially on the rise, we also have more tempered expectations for asset managers growth as a result of market performance.

June Asset Managers AUM Preview

Enclosed we also preview June 30th AUM for asset managers, Franklin Resources, Inc. (NYSE:BEN), Eaton Vance Corp (NYSE:EV), Invesco Ltd. (NYSE:IVZ), and Legg Mason Inc (NYSE:LM). Offsetting modest domestic market appreciation will be declines in developed, emerging, and fixed income markets. Currency was also a net negative for asset managers with the exception of the Euro.

Asset Under Management Estimates

Quaterly Estimates

Overall, we do not anticipate any of these 4 companies reporting inflows this month for asset managers. Refer to Exhibit 1 for specific AUM estimates.

Forward Price Earnings

Asset Managers Company Description

Affiliated Managers Group

Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. (NYSE:AMG) is an asset management firm focused on acquiring ownership interests in smaller boutique investment management companies – “affiliates.” AMG allows its affiliates to operate independently while providing the resources necessary to enhance operations, distribution, marketing and other non-core functions. AMG”s three primary distribution channels are mutual fund, institutional and high net worth. AMG has a specific segment called Managers Investment Group, or “Managers,” which distributes the company”s mutual funds and separately managed accounts (SMAs) through direct relationships with end clients as well as third parties such as brokerage and insurance companies.

BlackRock

BlackRock, Inc. (NYSE:BLK), founded in 1988 as a fixed income investment specialist, has quickly grown to become the world’s largest and most diverse independent asset manager. Headquartered in New York City, the company manages $3.7T in assets and employs over 10,000 professionals. The company is best known for its BlackRock branded funds and its iShares branded ETFs. The company has a presence on every major continent and its products can be found in over 100 countries. Investment strategies offered include all major asset classes, traditional and alternative funds, domestic and international funds, as well as actively and passively managed funds. Clients include retail and institutional investors that span corporations, pension plans, governments, foundations, institutions, sovereign wealth funds, third-party mutual funds, and individuals.

Blackstone

Blackstone Group L.P. (NYSE: BX) is a diversified global alternative asset manager with four primary business segments, consisting of: 1) Corporate Private Equity, 2) Real Estate, 3) Credit and Marketable Alternative Asset Management, and 4) Financial Advisory. The common thread throughout BX”s various investment funds is a value-oriented approach, with a focus on out-of-favor, high cash flow generating businesses. Blackstone went public in June 2007 at a price of $31 per share.

Fortress Investment

Fortress Investment Group LLC (NYSE:FIG) was founded in 1998 and is based in New York, New York. FIG is a global alternative asset manager focused primarily on asset-based value investing. Revenues are generated on fee income from managed assets as well as performance fees. The company charges a base management fee on assets under management and aligns its interests with investors by earning a large portion of its revenue from performance based incentives. Fortress operates through three core business segments, including private equity, hedge funds, and publicly traded investment vehicles, or “castles”. Fortress has offices located in New York, Dallas, San Diego, Toronto, London, Rome, Frankfurt and Sydney, and has AUM of approximately $43.8B as of 6/30/2011. FIG became the first alternative asset manager listed on the NYSE upon the completion of its IPO in February 2007.

Franklin Resources

Franklin Resources, Inc. (NYSE:BEN) is a leading global asset management firm best known for its Franklin, Templeton, and Mutual Series of funds and its conservative style of investing. The company caters to a broad base of investors including retail, institutions, corporations, endowments, foundations, and high-net-worth individuals. Well diversified, its offering include equity, hybrid, and fixed income mutual fund products that span US and international markets. Founded in 1947 as a fixed income specialist and public since 1971, in 1992 it became the first truly global independent asset management firm when it acquired Templeton, Galbraith and Hansberger Ltd. Headquartered in San Mateo, CA, Franklin maintains 58 offices globally with representation on all continents.

Invesco

Invesco Ltd. (NYSE:IVZ) is a global asset managers headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, with offices dispersed worldwide including Beijing, Hong Kong, Melbourne, Singapore, Dubai, and throughout continental Europe and the UK. Invesco is home to several well-recognized brand names within asset management, including Invesco AIM, Atlantic Trust, Invesco Perpetual, Invesco PowerShares, Invesco Trimark and WL Ross. IVZ maintains operations in 20 countries, providing a diverse platform

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