Expectations for Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)’s second calendar quarter are running low, with analysts being especially pessimistic regarding the company’s results. Fortune’s Philip Elmer-Dewitt reports on the results of the online magazine’s latest quarterly survey of analysts.


Apple may do good, but not great

Among those surveyed, he reports that no one is expecting Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) to deliver stellar results, although some think it will come out ahead of consensus. That would certainly be consistent with the reports we have reviewed here at ValueWalk. According to Elmer-Dewitt, analysts are predicting anywhere from a 7 to 29 percent decline. Revenues are expected to be either flat or down a bit, although $5 billion still separates the low end with the high end in terms of revenue estimates.

What’s especially interesting is that the estimates of analysts are beginning to be quite different. On average, estimates for Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)’s June quarter earnings are about 7.1 percent apart. The difference in revenue estimates is about 3.5 percent. At the company’s April report, those estimates were only 1.3 percent apart.

The independents are more positive on Apple

Of course while most analysts believe that Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) won’t deliver anything spectacular in today’s report, there is an interesting divide in the results. Elmer-Dewitt listed all of the estimates according to analyst in a chart form with color coding according to the type of analyst they are. He separates them into institutional analysts and independents.

The majority of the top of the chart is shaded green, indicating that in general, independent analysts tend to be more positive on Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) than those with a major institution. It should also be noted that most of the analysts on the high end of the chart are with the Braeburn Group.

Apple’s guidance is still low

Also on the chart are Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)’s high and low guidance for the June quarter. Only one analyst has estimated that the company will completely miss its guidance, and that’s Christopher Caso of Susquehanna, who estimated $32.84 billion in revenue and $6.64 per share in earnings for the quarter. The low end of Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)’s guidance is $33.5 billion in revenue.

On the high end, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) guided for $35.5 billion in revenue for the quarter. Twenty analysts have actually estimated that the company will beat the high end of its guidance, with the majority of them being independent analysts.