Blackberry / Research In Motion Ltd (NASDAQ:BBRY) (TSE:BB) is scheduled to report Q1 (May) results on Friday, June 28th (call at 8:00 a.m. EST @ 1-800-814-4859). Analysts from NBF (National Bank Financial) expect revenue of $3.9 bln (consensus $3.4 bln), up 38% y/y and up 44% q/q. The firm expect EPS of $0.01 vs. consensus of $0.06. Key variables for EPS will be gross margin (they expect 32.9%) and opex spend on promoting the Z10 and Q10 launch (mgmt estimates increase by ~50% q/q).

Another recent report by Morgan Stanley says: Research In Motion Ltd (NASDAQ:BBRY) (TSE:BB) is expected to “meet or beat” the estimates set by analysts for BB10 owing to strong Global sales. The report raises the FQ1 estimates for BB10 to 3.5 million from 3.0 million. Also, shipments of BB7 are falling faster, but the report considers it as “less relevant.”

BBRY Blackberry Research in Motion

Shipments, Subscriber Base & ASP Estimates

Analysts are modeling 8.2 mln smartphone shipments (consensus 7.3 mln), up 5% y/y and up 36% q/q. The research firm is expecting 4.0 mln BB10 shipments (consensus ~3.3 mln). They are modeling a $349 ASP vs. ~$265 q/q driven by the higher Z10 and Q10 ASP (consensus $311). They are modelling BB10 ASP at $525 vs. consensus at ~$485. Analysts expect sub churn of 3.8 mln, ending Q1 with ~72 mln subs (Exhibit 3).

NBF’s Focus Areas On Conf. Call

Speed of legacy sub base and services revenue decline, how are BB7 shipments and ASP holding/declining, Z10 & Q10 shipments & Q2 guidance given the install base may be eagerly awaiting the Q5, ASP for Research In Motion Ltd (NASDAQ:BBRY) (TSE:BB)’s BB10 devices, gross margin, inventory build and cash burn.

BlackBerry (BBRY) Short Interest At All-Time High.

Research In Motion Ltd (NASDAQ:BBRY) (TSE:BB)’s NASDAQ short balance is 171 mln shares as of May 31, ~33% shares outstanding. Adding about 11 mln shares on the TSX ~35% of Research In Motion Ltd (NASDAQ:BBRY) (TSE:BB) shares are short. Expect volatility.

Analysts at NBF again expect a bullish tone on the conference call with the Q10 hitting the USA next quarter and the Q5 internationally. Given the thesis of a fast declining paying BB7 base and an unprofitable stand-alone hardware business, analysts say that they would still avoid the stock. Their view remains, Research In Motion Ltd (NASDAQ:BBRY) (TSE:BB) needs more downsizing and focus on its niche enterprise and qwerty constituents.