One industry watcher thinks there’s a 60 percent chance the iPhone 6 will be unveiled this August. Stabley Times’ Phil Moore believes it will be the iPhone 6 rather than the iPhone 5S this year, and he’s looking for an August unveiling with a September arrival.

iPhone 6
Mockup: iPhone 6 Concept

iPhone 6 Because Of Apple’s Aggression

He cites “recent aggression” as pointing to Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) skipping the iPhone 5S and releasing the iPhone 6 instead. In his view, iOS 7 was so aggressive of a change that it has to mean that we’ll have the iPhone 6 this year. He says it’s “too radical to be wasted on an iPhone 5S which looks just like the current iPhone 5.”

The other reasons he gives stem from Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)’s recent patent filings and the photos of the supposedly leaked iPhone 6 components. He thinks they look as if they’ve been sufficiently enough altered so as to suggest a completely redesigned iPhone 6.

Chances Of The iPhone 5S Instead Of iPhone 6

He also notes that Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) seemed to be ready to skip the iPhone 4S and go right to the iPhone 5 in 2011, but then there was some kind of last minute delay which pushed the iPhone 5 to 2012. As such, he gives a 40 percent chance that we’ll see the iPhone 5S this year rather than the iPhone 6. He basically says this is a distinct possibility.

Chances Of The iWatch

And of course there have been murmurings about an iWatch, and he sees a 20 percent chance that Apple’s August event will feature this device. He mentions Apple board member Bill Campbell’s comments about the possibility of an iWatch, but he believes that it would have been unveiled at WWDC this year.

What About A Low Cost iPhone?

What isn’t mentioned is the chances of a low cost iPhone. It seems to some as if Apple must release a low cost version of the iPhone, and this just may be the iPhone 5S. Currently the “low cost” version is the iPhone 4S, as Apple continues to sell the previous model as a less expensive version. If the iPhone 6 is as big as an upgrade as some are hoping and it comes out this year, then I would add some chance of the low cost version being the iPhone 5S.

This would keep the historical iPhone numbering system intact while also giving enthusiasts looking for an iPhone Mini of sorts a chance to own the highly coveted handset without paying the high premium for the flagship device. Also the fact that there is an iPad Mini shows us that Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) might no longer be above offering a low cost version of its device.

A look at the release of the iPad Mini might give us some clues about what we might see this year if the iPhone Mini comes out along with the iPhone 6 / 5S. We saw both the iPad 4 and the iPad Mini released together in November 2012. So does this mean that there will be both an iPhone Mini and an iPhone 6 this November or at least this fall sometime? I would say there’s a chance of that happening as well.

But if we’re talking about chances, anything is possible when it comes to the iPhone 6. Let’s just hope Apple meets or exceeds the wild expectations that are floating around right now.