JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) has released a new report detailing its analysts opinions on the short term future of equities in emerging markets. The analysts opinions on the Russian equity market are particularly interesting, pointing to the resilience of the consumer economy in the country, while pointing to a depression in the price of the country’s equities.
The MSCI Russia index has been in “no man’s land” so far in 2013 according to the report. Russia’s internal consumer economy has been performing well, however, led by good results from the supermarket giant Magnit OAO (MCX:MGNT). The company has been on a fantastic run since the start of 2013, with shares increasing by more than 33 percent since the start of the new year.
The price of oil is one of the more persistent problems in the Russian economy and it’s having effects across the country’s equities market. Energy is the major basis for Russia’s economy, and it affects almost everything analysts think about the country.
The JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) recommends that investors should stay away from MRSK Holding. The firm, which recently changed its name to Rossiyskiye, is involved in a merger with FSK that is turning into quite a complicated affair.
The problems with that merger are dragging on the company’s bottom line, and causing trouble across Russian equities, making clear problems associated with doing business in Russia. A second secular problem is the recent decline in oil prices that has hit the entire industry hard.
Transneft, a popular Russian oil industry stock, is likely to see a reduction in revenue in the second quarter as its incomings fall on lower oil prices. Similar trends can be seen in oil producers like Gazprom OAO (MCX:GAZP). The company dominates many discussions about Russian equity, and with good reason.
The firm’s basis in oil and gas mirrors the basis for many of Russia’s other large companies and its decisions mirror, or change, large swathes of the country’s economy. Current stories driving the country’s stock price include a likelihood that it will drop its dividend this year, and rumors that it will lower capital expenditure in line with the fall in its profits.
Russia’s economy is oil, and oil isn’t doing well right now. That means Gazprom OAO (MCX:GAZP) shares are down more than 16 percent since the start of the year.