Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB) isn't due to report its earnings for the first three months of 2013 until May 1, but analysts have already begun to speculate on the company's future as it struggles to meet the expectations set on it by its high valuation. Mobile revenue, something essentially non-existent when the company went public, is highly sought after, and one analyst thinks the company may have some positive surprises in store.
Since the start of 2013, Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB) shares have lost more than 2 percent of their value. On today's market, however, the company saw some recovery in the price of its stock, though investors are still holding its assets far below IPO price. Part of the rally in the company's stock today resulted from a positive report from Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS).
The report's estimation of mobile revenue at $1.4 to $1.92 billion is at the very high end of analysts' guide numbers. The company pulled in revenue of just $1.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2012. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS) report explains the reasoning for the size of that number.
Facebook advertising is based on a measure called CPM, which is cost to the advertiser of one thousand impressions. For mobile advertising, Goldman Sachs starts with a base CPM of $5.5, that number pins international CPM at half of that in domestic markets. The company uses that figure, along with a weighted impression rate and Facebook's own Daily Active User stat, to estimate the company's revenue from mobile ads.
If the company's CPM and impressions come in at the low end, Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB) would see revenue from mobile hit $238 million in the first quarter, if the company's numbers come in at the high end, the firm will see quarterly mobile revenue of more than $540 million.
Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB) shares are sitting at an incredibly high valuation, and any stumble in the company's coming earnings report could create a negative loop in the firm's share price. The company's current P/E is well over 1,700, making it clear that investors expect the company's earnings to spiral upward in the next few years.
This Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS) report appears to support a hefty increase in Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB) mobile revenue, and if the company performs as anticipated in this report, it would help the Menlo Park firm demonstrate its worth to investors, but it's unclear if anything will be enough to placate investors in the short term.