Nokia Lumia phones have been on the focus of investors for months, and it may be the ultimate decider whether the company is able to maintain its recovery. Nokia Corporation reported profits last quarter after a string of quarterly losses. The company said it would suspend dividends as it continues the recovery process.

Nokia Lumia 820

In a report issued to investors this morning, analysts at Nomura said although sales of Nokia Lumia phones’ are growing, it is still too early to know if the Windows 8 platform can nab 5, 10 or even 20 percent of the market share. They emphasize that while it is feasible for Windows to grab 15 percent of the smartphone market share, which would be a significant increase from its 3 percent market share in 2012, there is little data to support that suggestion.

They said stronger traction is essential for Nokia Corporation (NYSE:NOK) (BIT:NOK1V) (HEL:NOK1V) to boost confidence in investors and drive its stock price up. The Nomura analysts said Nokia Lumia is the key to a potential upside of $8.19 per share if it does well. However, if it doesn’t do well, then the Nokia Lumia could be responsible for a downside risk of $3.63 per share.

In order for Nokia Corporation (NYSE:NOK) (BIT:NOK1V) (HEL:NOK1V) to be successful with its Nokia Lumia Windows 8 smartphone line, Nomura analysts say, Windows phones must take 15 percent of the smartphone market by 2014, and Nokia must take 55 percent of the Windows phone market. They said they also believe the company’s gross margins on its smartphones must rise to 24 percent in order to see the upside.

Shares of Nokia Corporation (NYSE:NOK) (BIT:NOK1V) (HEL:NOK1V) are down almost 3 percent in New York trading.