In the extreme short-run, mean-reversion dominates.  Over a year, momentum dominates.  Over a four year period mean-reversion returns.

The same applies to insurance stocks.  This is perhaps more true of insurance stocks, because the accounting is so opaque.  When accounting is opaque, it takes a longer period of time for market prices to catch up with the underlying reality.

I do not trust momentum naively.  I compare it to fundamentals and ask if it has more room to run or fall.  Remember, insurance is a mature industry… there are few sustainable competitive advantages here.  Near turning points, valuations are stretched or in the dumps.

That said, here is my table of momentum for the insurance industry:

company ticker img_desc

mktcap

prchg_52w
Radian Group Inc. RDN 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)                882.0

155%

Homeowners Choice, Inc. HCI 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)                241.1

146%

Stewart Information Services C STC 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)                528.1

100%

Imperial Holdings, Inc. IFT 0712 – Insurance (Miscellaneous)                  89.7

86%

Kingsway Financial Services In KFS 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)                  54.0

68%

Atlantic American Corporation AAME 0709 – Insurance (Life)                  69.7

63%

eHealth, Inc. EHTH 0712 – Insurance (Miscellaneous)                506.9

59%

Investors Title Company ITIC 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)                135.2

59%

First American Financial Corp FAF 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)            2,522.8

58%

Coventry Health Care, Inc. CVH 0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health)            6,239.6

57%

Hilltop Holdings Inc. HTH 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)                753.0

55%

CNO Financial Group Inc CNO 0709 – Insurance (Life)            2,315.5

52%

Allstate Corporation, The ALL 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)          21,154.9

51%

Symetra Financial Corporation SYA 0709 – Insurance (Life)            1,629.6

50%

American International Group, AIG 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)          54,180.4

46%

Sun Life Financial Inc. (USA) SLF 0709 – Insurance (Life)          17,505.2

46%

Platinum Underwriters Holdings PTP 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)            1,595.2

43%

Hartford Financial Services Gr HIG 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)          10,829.2

41%

Lincoln National Corporation LNC 0709 – Insurance (Life)            8,005.7

41%

Amtrust Financial Services, In AFSI 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)            2,232.4

40%

HCC Insurance Holdings, Inc. HCC 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)            3,989.2

39%

Fidelity National Financial In FNF 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)            5,669.5

38%

Horace Mann Educators Corporat HMN 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)                847.4

38%

Montpelier Re Holdings Ltd. MRH 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)            1,341.4

37%

Seabright Holdings Inc SBX 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)                249.3

37%

Verisk Analytics, Inc. VRSK 0712 – Insurance (Miscellaneous)            9,172.3

37%

AEGON N.V. (ADR) AEG 0709 – Insurance (Life)          13,026.1

36%

Fortegra Financial Corp FRF 0712 – Insurance (Miscellaneous)                179.3

35%

XL Group plc XL 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)            8,353.8

35%

Primerica, Inc. PRI 0709 – Insurance (Life)            1,877.3

34%

Allied World Assurance Co Hold AWH 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)            2,946.7

34%

Travelers Companies, Inc., The TRV 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)          29,569.3

33%

Everest Re Group Ltd RE 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)            5,944.0

33%

Prudential Public Limited Comp PUK 0709 – Insurance (Life)          38,254.3

33%

CIGNA Corporation CI 0706 – Insurance (Accident & Health)          16,718.9

33%

United Insurance Holdings Corp UIHC 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)                  91.9

32%

Partnerre Ltd PRE 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)            5,236.2

32%

Cincinnati Financial Corporati CINF 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)            6,959.7

29%

Protective Life Corp. PL 0709 – Insurance (Life)            2,500.8

29%

Argo Group International Holdi AGII 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)                926.7

29%

Hallmark Financial Services, I HALL 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)                171.6

26%

Aspen Insurance Holdings Limit AHL 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)            2,380.3

26%

Alterra Capital Holdings Ltd ALTE 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)            2,911.1

25%

Torchmark Corporation TMK 0709 – Insurance (Life)            5,314.2

24%

Alleghany Corporation Y 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)            6,048.5

24%

Eastern Insurance Holdings Inc EIHI 0709 – Insurance (Life)                135.2

24%

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. BRK.A 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)       242,512.2

23%

Manulife Financial Corporation MFC 0709 – Insurance (Life)          26,899.6

23%

Arch Capital Group Ltd. ACGL 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)            6,188.5

22%

Enstar Group Ltd. ESGR 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)            2,006.2

22%

Axis Capital Holdings Limited AXS 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)            4,664.5

22%

Genworth Financial  Inc GNW 0709 – Insurance (Life)            4,647.8

21%

Aon PLC AON 0712 – Insurance (Miscellaneous)          18,361.6

21%

American Equity Investment Lif AEL 0709 – Insurance (Life)                862.9

20%

White Mountains Insurance Grou WTM 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)            3,585.0

20%

ACE Limited ACE 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)          28,999.2

20%

Markel Corporation MKL 0715 – Insurance (Property & Casualty)            4,581.2

19%

United Fire Group, Inc. UFCS 0715

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