DOJ and FBI, backed by the Department of Homeland Security, have asked the FCC to not act on the proposed takeover of Sprint (S) by Japan’s SoftBank until the agencies complete their review of related national security, law enforcement, and public safety issues.
Analysts at Stifel Nicholas expect the FCC to agree, as it has done in the past when the DOJ and other agencies have made similar requests on proposed foreign purchases of U.S. companies/stakes. The analysts assume that the agencies will be particularly interested in resolving any potential concerns about SoftBank’s relationship with Chinese equipment makers Huawei and ZTE. Stifel believes that they could impose equipment restrictions and/or review processes, though they don’t expect them to block SoftBank’s purchase of 70% of Sprint outright.
The DOJ filed the request in a letter to the FCC, which is reviewing both the SoftBank-Sprint deal and Sprint’s proposed takeover of 100% of Clearwire Corporation (NASDAQ:CLWR). Petitions to deny associated license transfers were due yesterday. Dish (DISH) said it wasn’t making a filing at this time “due, among other things, to the uncertainty surrounding the ownership of Clearwire and Dish’s continued negotiations” with Clearwire board members “to acquire the company or certain assets of the company.” Dish said it intends to participate in reply comments due on Feb. 25 (opposition to petitions to deny is due on Feb. 12).
Dish previously asked the FCC to put its review of the SoftBank/Sprint/Clearwire transactions on hold due to the uncertainty, but many sense was that the FCC was unlikely to suspend the review absent further developments. The DOJ/FBI/DHS request adds another wrinkle to the equation. However, while Stifel wouldn’t expect the FCC to conclude its review prior to the other agencies resolving any concerns, investors are not sure it would put the proceeding on hold, unless there’s some sort of indication that Clearwire’s board is at least seriously pursuing a deal with Dish, which would face difficulties related to Sprint’s majority ownership, influence, and contract rights with Clearwire.
Verizon Wireless (VZ-VOD) didn’t oppose the transactions, but filed comments urging the FCC to revise its spectrum screen to include virtually all of Clearwire’s 2.5 GHz band spectrum, which averages 160 MHz in the top 100 markets. Verizon noted that the FCC’s screen only counts 55 of 76 MHz of “BRS” spectrum, and none of the 118 MHz of “EBS” spectrum. Verizon said both should be included in the screen because they were “suitable and available” for mobile telephony/broadband services (the FCC criterion). At some point, many suspect the FCC will agree at least in part, but Stifel believes that it’s reluctant to resolve this issue outside of its separate rulemaking on spectrum aggregation. Still, the Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE:VZ) push could help prod FCC decision making. Even if Clearwire doesn’t have to divest the spectrum, counting more of it in the screen would give Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE:VZ) and AT&T Inc. (NYSE:AT&T) more headroom to add spectrum.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley have a report out today, in which they pose an interesting question:
With Clearwire's stock now trading above the Sprint ($2.97) and DISH ($3.30) bids, the market appears to be assuming that Sprint raises its bid at least 13% and likely much more given the downside risks.
A look at the Timeline
12/17/12 – Sprint enters into a definitive agreement with Clearwire to buy the outstanding shares it does not already own for $2.97 per share. Comcast, Intel and BrightHouse committed to vote their shares (~13% of total voting shares) in support of the transaction. Softbank and Sprint Nextel Corporation (NYSE:S) also entered into an additional financing agreement for up to $800m. The deal was expected to close in mid-2013, likely in conjunction with the Sprint / Softbank deal.
1/8/13 – Clearwire discloses that it has received an unsolicited non-binding proposal from DISH, which includes an offer to buy up to all of Clearwire's common stock for $3.30 per share (subject to minimum ownership of at least 25% and granting of certain governance rights). DISH also proposed spectrum purchases, a commercial agreement and financing provisions.
Likely (according to Morgan Stanley)
1) Sprint raises its bid above current trading levels to ensure a successful vote (x% upside) – Sprint will likely be reluctant to raise its bid above what it sees as an "illusory" offer, although it is likely keen to resolve the uncertainty. Even if Sprint raised its bid to around $3.30, it is possible that DISH could counter with a higher bid, creating a bidding war.
2) Sprint matches DISH’s $3.30 offer and wins approval (2% downside) – In order to ensure victory, Sprint raises its offer to $3.30 and is successful in winning the Clearwire shareholder vote.
3) Sprint raises its bid to $3.15 and wins approval (6% downside) – Sprint raises its bid modestly, but does not match the DISH offer, but nevertheless, Sprint is successful in winning the Clearwire shareholder vote. Analysts at Morgan Stanley think this may be the most likely scenario.
What will the Clearwire Special Committee do? Clearwire has said that a special committee of the board of directors will "engage with DISH to discuss, negotiate and or provide information