It is official Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) is one weak stock right now. It is supposed to be a tell when the market is up, and your down considerably to the tune of 3%. The Jim Cramer tax selling notion can now be dispelled as well. This is the new year, and for Apple shareholders the misery of the third quarter is repeating itself.
After a bump up with the entire market at the beginning of the year, a 300 point rally can lift a lot of boats; the sellers loved that entry point to reassert this stock on the downtrend it has been on since the 700 dollar level.
So what is really going on in Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)? What are the reasons for this Wall Street darling losing favor to such a degree? Where is this stock ultimately heading in regards to a price target? These are some of the things that I am seeing with the fundamentals of the Apple business model.
Apple doesn`t make the best phone anymore
Apple doesn`t unquestionably make the best smartphone anymore. The Galaxy3 by Samsung is at worst case on equal footing with regard to the Apple I-Phone 5 smartphone, and depending upon what features you covet in a smartphone, the Galaxy3 is even better for watching Netflix movies or playing games with its much bigger screen.
Timing really hurt Apple because the Galaxy3 came out 8 weeks earlier, and all those subscribers who could have looked at the I-Phone 5, went into their local Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE:VZ) or AT&T Inc. (NYSE:T) store and fell in love with the beautiful Samsung Galaxy3.
The Galaxy3 made all other phones, including all the latest offerings from the other brands look old and antiquated. It really stood out aesthetically by comparison. Yes it had the Apple ahh factor!
And once those subscribers bought the high end phone, they are locked up for at least 2 years with their new contract, and Samsung sold a lot of Galaxy3 smartphones, in fact they had a blowout quarter.
Rate of change
Another point to bring up is the rate of change, or how fast all of apple`s competitors have closed the gap, and in Samsung`s case have surpassed Apple in some aspects of the modern smartphone with better technology and features. Apple revolutionized the Smartphone with their first iteration, but if you have an old I-Phone it looks like something 20 years old, it is a dinosaur.
Apple went from being an unquestioned leader to just one of the best in less than 5 years' time. If we extrapolate this pace going forward Apple will not even be among the top 5 smartphones on the market in three years' time.
Everyone knew that in the end Apple made a commodity which was easily duplicated, and it's not like they didn`t borrow tons of features from other device makers who created much of the technology previous to Apple getting into the market.
So if Apple can go from not even being in the market to the best phone on the market in two years, the barrier to entry is pretty low, i.e., there is very little first mover advantage in this market judged by how fast the technology is reinventing itself. In other words, today`s leader can be tomorrow`s also ran faster than Moore`s law can bat an eye.
When a market is this lucrative, and this much cap ex goes into research and engineering by competitors with a relatively low barrier to entry, no creative team can rest on their laurels.
Law of diminishing returns
In the end though Apple is running into another law, the law of diminishing returns. There is actually very little that distinguishes any of the smartphones anymore, they essentially all have the same specs, capabilities, and their styles are even merging.
In fact, have you seen the latest Blackberry offering, it even looks like a cool phone. My first thought when I saw the Blackberry10 was wow that looks like an I-phone. So the category has matured, all the low hanging fruit features wise has been picked, and the phones are basically being commoditized as we speak.
Moreover, an older Android phone that people can get for free from their carrier is so much better than even the third iteration of the I-Phone by Apple. If you put these two offerings side by side, the I-Phone 3 looks old and antiquated, that`s how fast the rate of change has occurred in the industry.
So any differences between phones will become less and less as they all converge onto the best features, almost like evolution and how certain characteristics are selected for in nature, and all the birds on a certain island have the same