5:40PM EST: We are now beginning live coverage of the Presidential race between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. Based on many polls conducted, we expect Barack Obama will likely win the electoral college. We think that Mitt Romney has a very good chance of winning the popular vote, while Barack Obama wins the election. In addition, there is a slight possibility of a tie in the electoral college, which would almost certainly be a Mitt Romney victory (more on that shortly). Regardless, of the result we expect the that the winner will not be known for a long time. Below is an excellent video which explains the possible time that the winner will be announced.
We will shortly be posting the times at which states close their polls. We will be referring to Eastern Standard Time, unless otherwise specified.
Thousands of sites, channels etc are covering the results, we will try to provide some interesting information, which we believe most networks will not focus on (we will post that information shortly and throughout the night). Stay tuned for further coverage beginning shortly, starting with one strange internal poll and state poll closing times.
6:09: Before getting into details let us first look at the electoral college map. Mitt Romney’s safe states are Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, Texas, Tennessee, West Virginia, Kentucky, Kansas, South Carolina, Wyoming, Utah, and Idaho.
6:13: Barack Obama’s safe states are New York, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Maryland, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine, DC, Delaware, New Mexico, Illinois, Minnesota, Oregon, California, Washington, Illinois, Hawaii, and New Mexico.
Barack Obama has 201 votes from those states and Mitt Romney has 191 votes from safe states.
6:14: The too close to call states include, Florida, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada.
We are separating the remaining states; Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nevada as we will explain in a moment.
Below are the closing times for all the states considered in play:
Florida: 7:00 PM
New Hampshire: 8:00
6:20: Michigan was considered long a Barack Obama state. However, one recent poll shows that Mitt Romney is leading. We think that it is in Obama’ column which would give him 16 further electoral votes or 217 total.
6:21: Nevada is considered a toss-up but nearly all polls showed Barack Obama in the lead, so we will give him the six votes from the state, which gives him 223.
6:23: Pennsylvania was considered a safe state for Barack Obama until recently. Some polls have shown Mitt Romney within the margin of error. We think that Barack Obama will likely win Pennsylvania, but we think it is too close to call currently.
Below is our current electoral map, which readers can play around with at Real Clear Politics
We are getting breaking news on Ohio. Many have feared that the state could be the deciding one, and we might not know the winner for days. However, below is the latest:
— Erin Burnett (@ErinBurnett) November 6, 2012
NewsMax, a right leaning website claims to have an internal poll, which has some surprising numbers:
Here’s the rundown of the Obama internals:
- Michigan TIED
- Pennsylvania Obama +3: “Not a good sign, Obama was leading there by 10 points two weeks ago and Romney is rallying voters there today.”
- Ohio Obama +2: “Romney is definitely closing the gap.”
- Virginia Obama +2: “They feel they have it, Obama wins Virginia.”
- Colorado Obama +3
- New Hampshire TIED
- Florida “They’ve conceded it to Romney.”
Virginia is more likely to be close than Michigan, however, this internal poll says Michigan is a tie, while Virginia is likely Obama. That scenario seems highly unlikely. We are not sure what to make of that poll, but think that Mitt Romney winning Michigan, and Barack Obama winning Virginia is not realistic.
Drudge has the following up:
The exit polls are unreliable in a tight race, however, if they are correct, Mitt Romney would have 235 electoral votes and Barack Obama would have 247. Mitt Romney would have to win Ohio, and at least two other states to win.
Based on recent polls, we believe that Mitt Romney will win North Carolina and Florida, while Barack Obama will win the states in the exit polls. Therefore, these exit polls could be accurate, which shows how hard the electoral math is for Mitt Romney.
According to CBS exit polls, 60% of voters cite the economy as the top issue. Mitt Romney is slightly ahead of Back Obama on who would do a better job of handling the economy, by 51-45.
It seems the both Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are gearing up for a long night. Reports state that Mitt Romney has not prepared a concession speech. Barack Obama is expecting a long night as well.
— juliannagoldman (@juliannagoldman) November 6, 2012
6:47: The polls have not closed yet, so let us look at what the world is thinking. According to a recent poll from 21 countries, Barack Obama is favored in all but Pakistan. In Pakistan, Mitt Romney gets 14% of the vote while Barack Obama gets 11% of the vote.
6:48: Few Muslim countries were polled, but it is highly likely that they feel the same way as Pakistan, they do not like either candidate. We plan to write several articles on the issues regarding Pakistan facing the next President, but to say that the vast majority of Pakistanis (including secular and/or moderate Muslims) despise the policies of Barack Obama would be an understatement.
6:52: Interestingly, our neighbours up North in Canada favor Barack Obama over Mitt Romney by 66% to 9%. After the Keystone-XL decision by Barack Obama, I would think that the numbers would be more balanced. That is also based on personal conversations with Canadians across the country, but I guess I am wrong.
The first polls will be closing soon, although the results will not be available quickly unless the races are not close.
6:56: According to CNN exit polls, 67% of voters in Florida are white, down from 71% in 2008.
We mention this poll because we trying to gauge what both sides are claiming. Until we have concrete numbers for a large percentage of people it is hard to draw conclusions. Although Barack Obama is the favorite, the exit poll by CNN is meant to show that he is winning Florida, we believe this is no indication, especially since exit polls are notoriously off.
7:01: Polls are closing in some swing states and some of the safe states we will be posting the information as it comes in.
7:04 No surprise here:
Romney wins: Kentucky; Obama wins: Vermont, CNN Projects
— Mark Preston (@PrestonCNN) November 7, 2012
7:08: However, this is big news: