Mitt Romney vs. Barack Obama: 2012 U.S. Election Results [LIVE]

5:40PM EST: We are now beginning live coverage of the Presidential race between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. Based on many polls conducted, we expect Barack Obama will likely win the electoral college. We think that Mitt Romney has a very good chance of winning the popular vote, while Barack Obama wins the election. In addition, there is a slight possibility of a tie in the electoral college, which would almost certainly be a Mitt Romney victory (more on that shortly). Regardless, of the result we expect the that the winner will not be known for a long time. Below is an excellent video which explains the possible time that the winner will be announced.

We will shortly be posting the times at which states close their polls. We will be referring to Eastern Standard Time, unless otherwise specified.

Thousands of sites, channels etc are covering the results, we will try to provide some interesting information, which we believe most networks will not focus on (we will post that information shortly and throughout the night). Stay tuned for further coverage beginning shortly, starting with one strange internal poll and state poll closing times.

6:09: Before getting into details let us first look at the electoral college map. Mitt Romney’s safe states are Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana,  Arkansas, Texas, Tennessee, West Virginia, Kentucky, Kansas, South Carolina, Wyoming, Utah, and Idaho.

6:13: Barack Obama’s safe states are New York, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Maryland, Connecticut,  Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine, DC, Delaware,  New Mexico, Illinois, Minnesota,  Oregon, California, Washington, Illinois, Hawaii, and New Mexico.

Barack Obama has 201 votes from those states and Mitt Romney has 191 votes from safe states.

6:14: The too close to call states include, Florida, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada.

We are separating the remaining states; Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nevada as we will explain in a moment.

Below are the closing times for all the states considered in play:

Florida:  7:00 PM

Iowa: 9:00

Nevada: 7:00

New Hampshire: 8:00

Ohio: 7:30

Pennsylvania: 8:00

Virginia: 7:00

Wisconsin: 8:00

6:20: Michigan was considered long a Barack Obama state. However, one recent poll shows that Mitt Romney is leading.  We think that it is in Obama’ column which would give him 16 further electoral votes or 217 total.

6:21: Nevada is considered a toss-up but nearly all polls showed Barack Obama in the lead, so we will give him the six votes from the state, which gives him 223.

6:23: Pennsylvania was considered a safe state for Barack Obama until recently. Some polls have shown Mitt Romney within the margin of error. We think that Barack Obama will likely win Pennsylvania, but we think it is too close to call currently.

Below is our current electoral map, which readers can play around with at Real Clear Politics

Mitt Romney vs. Barack Obama: 2012 U.S. Election Results [LIVE]

We are getting breaking news on Ohio. Many have feared that the state could be the deciding one, and we might not know the winner for days. However, below is the latest:

NewsMax, a right leaning website claims to have an internal poll, which has some surprising numbers:

Here’s the rundown of the Obama internals:

  • Michigan TIED
  • Pennsylvania Obama +3: “Not a good sign, Obama was leading there by 10 points two weeks ago and Romney is rallying voters there today.”
  • Ohio Obama +2: “Romney is definitely closing the gap.”
  • Virginia Obama +2: “They feel they have it, Obama wins Virginia.”
  • Colorado Obama +3
  • New Hampshire TIED
  • Florida “They’ve conceded it to Romney.”

Virginia is more likely to be close than Michigan, however, this internal poll says Michigan is a tie, while Virginia is likely Obama. That scenario seems highly unlikely. We are not sure what to make of that poll, but think that Mitt Romney winning Michigan, and Barack Obama winning Virginia is not realistic.

Drudge has the following up:

The exit polls are unreliable in a tight race, however, if they are correct, Mitt Romney would have 235 electoral votes and Barack Obama would have 247. Mitt Romney would have to win Ohio, and at least two other states to win.

Based on recent polls, we believe that Mitt Romney will win North Carolina and Florida, while Barack Obama will win the states in the exit polls. Therefore, these exit polls could be accurate, which shows how hard the electoral math is for Mitt Romney.

According to CBS exit polls, 60% of voters cite the economy as the top issue. Mitt Romney is slightly ahead of Back Obama on who would do a better job of handling the economy, by 51-45.

It seems the both Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are gearing up for a long night. Reports state that Mitt Romney has not prepared a concession speech. Barack Obama is expecting a long night as well.

6:47: The polls have not closed yet, so let us look at what the world is thinking. According to a recent poll from 21 countries, Barack Obama is favored in all but Pakistan. In Pakistan, Mitt Romney gets 14% of the vote while Barack Obama gets 11% of the vote.

6:48: Few Muslim countries were polled, but it is highly likely that they feel the same way as Pakistan, they do not like either candidate. We plan to write several articles on the issues regarding Pakistan facing the next President, but to say that the vast majority of Pakistanis (including secular and/or moderate Muslims) despise the policies of Barack Obama would be an understatement.

6:52: Interestingly, our neighbours up North in Canada favor Barack Obama over Mitt Romney by 66% to 9%. After the Keystone-XL decision by Barack Obama, I would think that the numbers would be more balanced. That is also based on personal conversations with Canadians across the country, but I guess I am wrong.

The first polls will be closing soon, although the results will not be available quickly unless the races are not close.

6:56: According to CNN exit polls, 67% of voters in Florida are white, down from 71% in 2008.

We mention this poll because we trying to gauge what both sides are claiming. Until we have concrete numbers for a large percentage of people it is hard to draw conclusions. Although Barack Obama is the favorite, the exit poll by CNN is meant to show that he is winning Florida, we believe this is no indication, especially since exit polls are notoriously off.

7:01: Polls are closing in some swing states and some of the safe states we will be posting the information as it comes in.

7:04 No surprise here:

7:08: However, this is big news:

7:09: Back to what we mentioned above about a potential tie between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. There are several combinations which can lead to a tie, and it could happen based on the current electoral map. If there is a tie of 269-269, the vote would go to the House of Representatives. 7:13: CSMoniter.com detailed several potential tie scenarios. It is possible that Mitt Romney would become President and Joe Biden would be Vice President in a possible outcome. 7:15: Indiana has now been called for Mitt Romney

7:19: We posted a video above about when the election could be called. http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-11-06/heres-what-time-the-election-will-be-called has an interesting chart on the possible scenarios. It states that if Barack Obama wins every single swing state, he will be declared the winner by 11:00PM EST 7:20: Another two states called for Mitt Romney

  We also have the first results from Florida:

7:22: More from Virginia:

7:27: In Florida, the first 18% of votes are in. Barack Obama is leading Mitt Romney by less than 10,000 votes. If Mitt Romney loses Florida it will be almost impossible for him to win. However, we do not know which counties have been tallied yet.

7:32: Readers can find live results from Virginia at the following link-November 6, 2012 General Election Unofficial Results

7:33: No surprise here, CNN calls West Virginia for Mitt Romney:

7:34: It is too early to draw conclusions, but here is the latest from Florida. This state is a must win for Mitt Romney:

  7:35: Ohio polls close, eyes are now on Virginia, North Carolina Florida and Ohio. 7:38: South Carolina is called for Mitt Romney. Again, no surprise here:

  7:40: 26% of Florida is in and Mitt Romney is trailing by close to 70,000 votes (CNN) 7:44 Readers can find live results from Florida at the following link (the numbers will not be out until 8PM, even though the polls closed at 7PM) 2012 General Election Unofficial Results 7:50: It appears that voting is still going on in Virginia:

  7:55: First results are out from Ohio:

7:58: The latest news from Florida is not looking good for Mitt Romney, 41% counted and its Obama 51% and Romney 48%. Below is the latest news out of Virginia:

 

8:00 Connecticut is called for Barack Obama as expected:

8:04: Several states expected to vote for Barack Obama have been called:

  8:08: Barack Obama has just made some statements about the election, which seem strange looking at the current data:

8:10: Some senate races have just been called:

 

8:13: Mitt Romney is catching up in Florida. We have the latest numbers straight from the state. Barack Obama -2,611,936 and Mitt Romney – 2,729,818

8:22: Not much news is going on the states. No surprises for the safe states. Right now the swing states are too close, with Mitt Romney catching up in Florida.

8:26: Another expected state for Romney is called:

8:28: U.S. electoral vote count as of now: Mitt Romney 82, Barack Obama 65 8:30: Besides for Florida which we are closely watching, Ohio, Virginia and New Hampshire are now counting votes. It is close to impossible to gauge if the numbers are good for either candidate, due to conflicting data. 8:35: Latest data out of Florida shows an increasingly close race: Mitt Romney 2,985,999 49.41% versus 3,008,340 49.78% for Barack Obama. Some voters are still in line at the polls for Florida. The law is that if someone gets in line before the poll close they can still cast a ballot. 8:43: Mitt Romney wins Alabama as expected.

  8:50: Mitt Romney is now trailing Barack Obama by 7,000 votes. Barack Obama wins Maine, as expected. 8:58: Colorado polls close in three minutes. Meanwhile, some interesting data from ABC News 9:01: Bob Casey wins re-election in Pennsylvania. The GOP is predicted to control the House of Representatives, as expected.

  9:02: In the first big news of the night, Barack Obama has won Michigan.

9:05: More good news for Barack Obama. Minnesota, a state which some polls showed as close has been won by Obama. 9:06: U.S. electoral college running count is now: Mitt Romney 126, Barack Obama 95. In big Senate news, NBC expects Elizabeth Warren to beat Scott Brown. 9:12: Latest electoral votes for the candidates:

 

9:16: This is very bad news for Mitt Romney, if he loses both states, it will be almost impossible for Romney to win:

9:17: Fox News is calling Pennsylvania for Barack Obama, its looking like we might have an official winner soon.

  9:18: In the first good news of the night for Mitt Romney, he has finally taken the lead in Florida; Romney 3,438,525, Obama 3,434,117 9:21: Obama is now in the lead in Ohio. If Obama wins Ohio or Florida, we will probably call the election for him.

9:26: Obama might win New Hampshire and Iowa is leaning towards Obama.

 

9:27: Wisconsin is called for Barack Obama by Fox News:

9:31: Elizabeth Warren has not been declared winner of Senate seat in Massachusetts:

  9:34: Electoral vote count update: Mitt Romney 157, Barack Obama 154 9:35: New Hampshire is now called for Barack Obama:

9:42: Romney needs to win Virginia, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Colorado. Here is the latest from Virginia:

 

9:54: It is almost certain that Barack Obama will win re-election, however, we will continue coverage until swing states are called. Below is an update from an important senate race.

9:59: The latest from Virginia:

  10:04: It looks like at least some members of the Romney camp have given up:

10:08: Some more Senate races including Warren Elizabeth:

 

 

 

10:19: If Obama wins Iowa, then Romney would have to win New Mexico (lean towards Obama) and many other states to win. Romney has close to a zero percent chance of winning currently:

 

10:21: Breaking news on a Senate race:

10:22:

 

10:27: Since Obama is going to win congratulations, Obama ran a really dirty campaign which worked, but the ends justify the means (at least according to his campaign). You have a monumental task ahead. The country is incredibly polarized, and the fiscal cliff looms. However, I want to focus on foreign policy, and see that many people outside the US are following this. We will be posting some interesting articles on Pakistan in particular. I urge readers to check out my article on Egypt. It really is more broad of an issue that pertains to many countries in North Africa and the Middle East, I might get into those countries that at a later time. I will still be providing live coverage until it is official that Obama won.

10:44: Bloomberg just stated that Obama won Arizona. This was supposed to be a relatively safe state for Mitt Romney. He will now need to win Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Colorado and Iowa to get to exactly 270. This is almost impossible  especially considering Romney’s under-performance in states he was supposed to win like Florida.

10:45: CORRECTION. Mitt Romney wins Arizona:

10:58: Big news for Mitt Romney, he just won North Carolina. He must win Ohio, Virginia, Florida and Colorado now to win.

11:00: Big Senate race just announced:

11:04: This could be the end for Romney:

11:09: Electoral college: Barack Obamma 243, Mitt Romney 203. NV, OH, FL, IA, VG are key. Both Virginia and Ohio are too close to call and may need a recount. Romney needs to win Ohio to even have a chance of winning.

11:12: Obama is now projected to win Iowa:

11:14: CNBC is declaring Barack Oobama the winner.

11:15: Obama wins Ohio he now has more than enough electoral votes to win. Barack Obama has been re-elected as President of the United States.