Bill Ackmann

Pershing Square Capital CEO, Bill Ackman explains the long case for JC Penny. The company got two downgrades yesterday, and last week reported what most considered to be poor earnings.

H/T Value Investing World

Video and computer generated transcript below:

en they walk to the store on the other side of the mall and get to four shops. here we have 100 shops in a tigh geographic area, your husband has a little ipad that he can be playing with, your kids can be playing with legos in something he calls the street this little area here, look at our little street, something called the square which is going to have food and seasonal prizes. fun place to shop. you can go into 15, 20, 30 shops in this consolidated apple like checkout, iphone, anyone can check you out, it’s efficient, nice environment. it’s the apple store customer interface combined with the best brands of the world in a small geography. we had $250 a square foot in sales with the traffic down 12%. for your sake and for ron johnson’s sake i hope this works and i love a great come back story. i want to leave our viewers with one thing. the biggest problem people have with something like this, how can i own a stock when the sales are down 26%? i’ll make one analogy and help people think about how to value this company. we took a stake in wendy’s, why did people not like wendy’s? i get a chance we come back after a commercial, i’m happy to stay. i think we’re going. give me one minute and i’m happy to come back another time. wendy’s, people hated the management, there was a fast growing company called tim horton’s inside wendys. we separated and the stock doubled. we have this fast growing retail inside jcpenney, profitable and high margins and the rest of jcpenney is shrinking. it’s hard to look at it on a consolidated piece. you have to [email protected] pieces separately. if you do that you’ll buy the stock at $18 per share. thank you for coming and the conversation. where are your pins? look for your pins at jcpenney beginning black friday. i wouldn’t be short the stock. you’re not. thank you very much. bill, thank you. let’s look at the futures quickly, we have been under a little pressure. you’ll see right now that the futures are down by 38 points. we’ll welcome steven roach when we come back after this break. to future. since ameriprise financial was founded back in 1894, they’ve been committed to putting clients first. helping generations through tough times. good times. never taking a bailout. there when you need them. helping millions of americans over the centuries. the strength ofa global financial leader. the heart ofa one-to-one relationship. together for your future. great… were you profitable last month? 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i did. this big piece in the wall street journal on the economy in china. needs work. you are a china expert and they go over things and it’s in the wall street journal if you have an interest they are adding to the workforce which is a b deal, more and more people come into the workforce in china. the number of people in china is declining. they’ve hit the top and they’re headed down the other way. joe, there are a lot of challenges in china, there are a lot of challenges in the united states and a lot of challenges in europe. the difference is china does something we need to think about in the united states, they do strategy and they have a commitment to the strategy and they have the tools to implement that commitment. they have a five-year plan, adam smith has never planned anything in his life or afterwards. they went from people living in broken down tenements in urban centers to satisfying the demand that was there to now half empty buildings and totally overbuilt situation. doesn’t that set you up for a couple of years of not growing at 10%? i think 10% is probably too high. they’ve done it for 30 years and now they move to more like a 7% to 8% growth trajectory but 15 million to 20 million people per year are moving from the countryside to the city. it’s a field of dreams approach. when you build it, they will eventually come. this idea there are ghost cities all over china misses the future rural urban migration which is a very powerful story, ongoing in china. it’s on the upswing. in your view we’ve seen — we’ve seen the low in terms of the gdp, the production, the trade figures, we’re not rebounding vigorously but china will be moving up what into 2013. i think i have a minute or two left. the u.s. consumer we have been anecdotally thinking that we’ve turned the corner there and this has been your thing for years and years and there’s more anecdotal evidence now that we’ve turned the corner. watch out with the anecdotes. what about consumer confidence and housing? i get all of that. you were talking about zombies in an earlier segment. we have a generation of zombie consumers, overly indebted, short of saving, they have to repair the holes in the balance sheet being overly lefrd on underwater collateral. we’re a third of the way through it. the personal savgs rates are up but well below norms that were sustainable for the final three decades of the 20th century. so it’s going to be a long slog and the numbers, i’ve said them on this show a zillion times, 19 quarters from q1 ’08 through q3 ’12, average annual growth in consumerpending 0.7%, versus a prior ten-year average of 3.6. 0.7%. 0.7, becky. versus? 3.6. quite a slowdown for 70% of the economy. you’re suggesting we don’t rebound from that, we don’t come back? you’ll have mohammed on later, he’s the father of the new normal if you want to call him that,

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