London Olympics

What factors predict Olympic success? The list could get long and very complex, but some potentially indicating factors, both positive and negative, include the stock market, the wealth of a country, the sex distribution of a country, the age of the country, and whether a country acted as a host for the Olympics.

The chart to the right shows the statistical results. Overall, the best predictors of medal success are whether a country acts as a host (positive effect), how wealthy a country is (positive effect), the ratio of females to males (negative effect), and the age of the country (negative effect). The insignificant variables include how well the stock performed leading up to the year of the Olympics and the population of a given country.

The results raise some questions related to the current situation, such as:

* Will the fact that the Olympics were hosted in London increase Great Britain’s total medal count, as the statistics predict, or, will the end medal results indicate that Great Britain’s home field advantage meant little to them.

* Because China increased its wealth over the past four years relative to the other countries, will this put China ahead of the United States in the medal count? The model predicts they will.

The correlations are shown on the following page.