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GM’s Pension and European Problems

March 8, 2012
By
TEST3
I sold my GM position recently. The stock is up about 20% since where I bought it in late 2011.
Here are my reasons:

Pensions: GM is attempting to ‘de-risk’ the pension plan by boosting its bond holdings. I understand matching assets to liabilities but if there is a bubble in government bonds this could cause plan assets to plummet. Theoretically discount rates would benefit but you have to have some serious faith in GM’s investment team given the massive numbers involved.  Also, any miscalculation of benefits would be material given the $133b in planned benefit obligations.
Lack of Action in Europe:I don’t get the GM-Peugeot alliance. Maybe it’s partially meant as a tool in union negotiations but from my view this isn’t going to move the needle for either company, especially GM. Capacity needs to be taken out and wages lowered, similar to GM’s bankruptcy in the US but I don’t see this happening anytime soon.

Inferior Products: Their product line is still heavily dependent on gas guzzlers and rarely rank as high as other automakers in quality reports.
Insiders Selling: There were 5 insider sales by officers disclosed this week, all were for 6 figures. This never instills confidence in me, regardless of reasons given by investor relations.
Poor Industry: I knew this one in advance and felt I was more than compensated by the 6x earnings level. But let’s face it, its a tough industry.
I still think GM is likely undervalued but the size of the company’s pension plan, my lack of faith in management, dislike for the economics of the auto industry and the higher stock price have caused me to move on.

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One Response to GM’s Pension and European Problems

  1. avatar
    bleck319 on March 8, 2012 at 2:30 pm

    No offense but your analysis in simplistic.  You are potentially missing out on a huge gain.

    1)  Your concerns about the pension plan are overstated.  Derisking could be smart.  It could reduce volatility and protect against short-term equity market fluctuations; and by assuming a lower rate of return GM is showing prudence.

    Of the approximately $110 billion in pension assets, only just over $20 billion are invested in US Govt and Agency bonds, many of which could be short-term in nature.  A bursting of the US Treasury bubble will not affect the plan as much as you think.  In addition, pension liabilities are far less than they were before bankruptcy, and the shortfall is even less of a concern when you consider GM is flush with cash, with over $37 billion of automotive liquidity as of 12/31/11.

    2)  Lack of action in Europe is not a concern.  First, GM took a major goodwill impairment charge in 2011 for its European operations, clearly showing they recognize the environment is challenging.  Secondly, even if European demand is slow the next couple of years, worldwide demand should grow b/c of emerging markets and the US recovering from trough demand in 2009.  Sales of 13 million in the US in 2011 were far below average sales of 15-16 million and peak sales near 18 million.  Research firms like JD Power project worldwide auto sales to reach 100 million within the next five years.

    3) Inferior products?  Huh?  GM’s worldwide market share was up from 11.5% in 2010 to 11.9% in 2011, for the first time in a long time.  US share was helped especially by smaller cars, as the Buick Model outsold the Lexus IS250 and Acura TSX!  And GM’s China share also improved helped by its joint ventures.  Dividends from joint ventures  grew from $1.3 billion in 2010 to over $1.5 billion in 2011.  GM now has 13.6% share of the Chinese market!

    4) Insider selling is often a useless technical indicator.  They could just be reselling to diversify.  How about all the well-known value investors who have been buying?

    5)  Poor industry?  Weak reason.  Auto sales are back on the rise since the Great Recession, and there are only a few companies throughout the world who will be able to met the demand for this necessary product over the next several years.  With its improved balance sheet and huge amount of liquidity, GM is one of these companies.