“When I was young people called me a gambler. As the scale of my operations increased I became known as a speculator. Now I am called a banker. But I have been doing the same thing all the time” – Sir Ernest Cassell, Banker to Edward VII
”Equity is the sliver of hope between assets & liabilities” Russel Napier
Yukon Nevada Gold (YNG) is a substantial holding in my portfolio currently and has been the cause of much heartache and distress to its shareholders over the last couple of years. I think I’m risking 5% of my portfolio for an asset backed shot at spectacular returns. My write up here is heavily influenced by various other far superior write ups and research reports I have found dotted around the internet from the last 2 years and listed at the bottom. I am standing on their shoulders to write this report. The story is changing constantly so I imagine this will be out of date by the 30th of January.
Yukon-Nevada is a deeply under-valued US-based small-cap gold miner with operations in Nevada, USA and British Columbia, Canada. I believe YNG is approaching an inflection point where it may begin to realise something approaching its “true value”. I will try to convince you below that there is the strong possibility that YNG is not worth $224m at today’s price of $0.24 per share but instead is almost certainly worth $1.00, is probably worth $2.50 and could even be worth $7.00+. If you can’t handle 7% daily swings in the share price – Stop Here.
In its current form Yukon Nevada Gold was created via a merger in May 2007, between Yukon Gold Corp and Queenstake Resources Ltd. As a result of the combination of the businesses and assets of the two companies, Queenstake became a wholly-owned subsidiary of YGC, and YGC changed its name to the current Yukon-Nevada Gold Corp.
YNG is in the later phases of a turnaround and thanks to an arduous 2011 is now a substantially de-risked (but certainly not without risk!) proposition. By 2013, the company is planning to produce at a run rate of 300,000 ounces of gold per year. This is a long way from the current run rate of circa 80,000 ounces per annum. The production rate of 300,000 ounces of gold per year was achieved before, from 1987 to 2002. In its last full year of production under AngloGold, it produced 338,000 ozs of gold. There is no reason why they cannot achieve it again with its newly renovated roaster and 3.5 million ounces of gold in the ground.
What makes YNG different to other smaller gold miners is that its assets have a history of production and secondly that it has in its possession one of only three refractory mills in the state of Nevada. Not only does Yukon Nevada have the prospect of having three of its own mines in operation on its Jerritt Canyon site by 2014, but its key asset is the only refining mill with any spare capacity in the state of Nevada.
YNG is in the process of proving they have around 6m ounces of Gold in the ground currently according to a recent interview with the CEO.
Above Average Odds Investing said that at $0.25 “YNG is also trading at a market cap per resource oz of gold of approximately $35 per oz compared to a peer average of $150-200 per oz (peer group comprised of Alamos Gold, Aurizon Mines, Centamin Egypt, Kingsgate, Kirkland Lake, Mineral Deposits, Capital Gold and Semafo)
If YNG were re-valued to simply trade on a market cap/resource oz in-line with its peer group, YNG would currently be valued at $1.25-1.50/share.
Note that YNG has historically converted resources into reserves at a 120% rate.”
Since this time YNG has made several additional discoveries adding to their resources. That is a big discount.
At first, newly merged company seemed successful because during the first two quarters (Q3 and Q4 2007) the company was producing gold profitably. Then, by Q1 2008, problems started to emerge. During this quarter, the company shut down its operations in Jerritt Canyon to address myriad infrastructure, environmental (dangerous mercury emissions), cash flow and safety concerns. It was an unmitigated disaster. As just one example of prior management’s incompetence, the Jerritt Canyon property at the time of shut-down was operating with over 500 employees while current management is running nearly the same throughput was fewer than 150 employees.
The situation became so severe that the company was 24 hours away from declaring Chapter 11 bankruptcy. The stock price went from $2 per share to 2 cents causing investors to lose almost their entire capital. Anytime a stock price falls almost 100 percent like it did with Yukon-Nevada due to the fear of declaring Chapter 11 bankruptcy, it creates emotional scars investors. YNG has done the round trip from $2.70 in Dec 2006, to $0.02 at the end of 2008, to $0.95 at the end of 2010 and now