Our forecasted strategic changes have been on target:

  • In 2006: We called that Southern California was a time bomb ready to explode, and then construction fell 84%.
  • In 2007: We said resale prices would fall another 15%, and they fell 19%.
  • In 2008: We said future growth would be dominated by renters, and the apartment REIT stocks soared by 84% and renter household formation surged.
  • In 2009: We said “great land will be bid up aggressively,” and land prices soared in early 2010 before falling again.
  • In 2010: Our Starts forecast was 20% more accurate than WSJ economists. Our forecasted price appreciation was within 2% of the actual We pitched the idea of mass rental of SF homes as a potential solution directly to government, and they pursued the idea.

Full Scribd:John Burns Housing

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